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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still