Under a radiant sunset in Memphis in May, an environmental advocate pointed a heat-sensing device at a major computing facility to uncover a environmental hazard hidden from plain view. Free from emissions regulations, the natural gas generators running one of the world’s biggest AI data farms were pumping undetectable emissions into the Tennessee sky.
“I was completely stunned,” stated the campaigner, who believes the facility was releasing more methane than a major utility station. “An absolutely staggering level of contamination.”
Around the same time, the resulting chatbot was spreading across news feeds, repeating conspiracy theories and producing misleading content. Critics have pointed to synthetic visuals of offensive characters as an example of what natural gas was being burned to produce. “What is the actual benefit here?”
Others echo this sentiment in voicing this concern. Researchers are monitoring the AI boom with apprehension as it contaminates the physical environment with emissions and the digital world with risks ranging from medical myths to deepfake pornography.
A number of analysts fear datacentres may hinder the shift to a sustainable system, adding an major challenge to the enormous challenge of keeping the planet from warming beyond critical thresholds. Others are sanguine about the energy costs, arguing they are relatively small not just to polluting industries, but also to the technology’s power to transform our world.
The Soaring Energy Demand
As a sustainability researcher conducted analysis for an leading energy organization, she spent not much focus worrying about the energy footprint of computers. Transport, agriculture and buildings were among the major issues draining the carbon budget.
But in one European nation, the energy demand from computing has reached levels that are impossible to ignore. Datacentres consume one-fifth of the country’s electricity and are projected to devour nearly one-third within a few years. The fast growth of these chip-filled warehouses has outpaced the electricity grid's capacity, leading to moratoriums on new grid connections.
“The path of enormous, exponential growth is what is so alarming,” said Daly. “It's unclear whether this is a real outlier or a harbinger of what’s to come. But it’s definitely a warning story.”
Worldwide, datacentres consume a small fraction of the world’s electricity but may soon consume a greater share. Their percentage of electricity demand in major economies is expected to increase significantly by 2035. Some demand is being met through contracts to buy renewable power, while some tech firms have secured contracts to use atomic power.
But for the foreseeable future, coal and gas are set to be the primary source. In some regions, datacentres are clustered in areas reliant on polluting power generation. In others, political support has framed them as justification for continuing with dirty energy. “The assumption that the lower cost of renewables alone will drive decarbonisation – this is inadequate,” said Daly. “Since when there’s a huge source of energy demand that wants to grow, it will land on these stranded fossil fuel assets.”
Assessing the Climate Impact of a Query
Does employing chatbots to plan holidays threaten the planet? Tech companies have been reluctant to provide specific figures on their AI energy footprints, but rough calculations hover around a small amount of energy for a simple text query, rising considerably for more complex tasks. One CEO recently asserted a typical AI query uses as little energy as running a lightbulb for a couple of minutes.
These figures are minimal compared to activities such as air travel, eating meat, or driving a car. Still, sceptics worry about the sheer scale of the technology – with hundreds of millions of weekly users – and the enthusiasm with which companies have shoved it into every aspect of digital life. The rise of background services is expected to add to the ongoing power consumption.
“The issue that troubles me is that we’re deploying AI in such a way that we are not fully aware of the energy use,” said a climate lead at an AI company. “The prevailing mindset is on the assumption that it’s not a problem – or that if it is a problem it will somehow be solved – instead of planning for it.”
The Potential for Emission Reductions
What if AI could offset its energy debts by cutting greenhouse gases in other parts of the economy? That is the argument put forward in several reports, which argued existing AI applications could cut emissions by far more than datacentres produced. Researchers have modelled scenarios in which AI would help to manage renewable energy, identify alternative proteins, improve energy storage tech and nudge people toward climate-friendly choices.
“AI can accelerate the deployment of those clean technologies by basically advancing their development along the curve of development and use,” said a policy fellow involved in the research.
The potential climate benefits carry major unknowns – greater efficiency can lead to more use, and secondary impacts may undercut the gains. But examples already exist. Some companies report AI has helped reduce energy for temperature control in datacentres by a significant percentage. Energy firms say AI has enhanced wind turbine maintenance and performance, increasing operational efficiency. Solar farm operators have reduced downtime by using AI to spot issues.
Because other sectors are so polluting, researchers say, AI would only need to cut their emissions by a minor amount to cover the carbon cost of its computing. “Regarding electricity we are already seeing the results,” said one researcher. “But other sectors are not there yet.”
The Counterargument: Enabling Fossil Fuels
Sustainability proponents are not the only ones to have noticed AI’s significant impact. The fossil fuel industry is also a major adopter. Some former tech employees have expressed concern over their companies' work for oil and gas clients, arguing it enables more emissions than the tech sector produces itself. Partnerships have been announced with major oil companies, with the potential to expand production and streamline exploration.
Industry estimates suggest AI could boost accessible oil and gas reserves and cut project costs. Industry leaders have stated that AI is embedded “in everything” and has increased productivity, leading to more drilling activity. The oil and gas industry also argues AI can cut its emissions per barrel, for instance by analysing data to spot methane leaks. But critics say there is a difference between digital insights and tangible reductions.
“This is being utilized as an excuse to postpone meaningful steps,” said one campaigner. “Watching methane from space is not halting methane.”
Perhaps even more troubling than the expansion of fossil fuel supply is the effect on consumption. Generative AI has been shown to create highly effective advertisements, and the ease of production slashes the cost of encouraging consumption. The marketing industry is preparing for AI agents that could make decisions on a customer’s behalf.
“The prevailing story is really focused on this incomplete analysis between the energy used to run the technology and the positive use cases,” said a campaigner. “But it is risky to omit the negative use cases.”
Calls for Pause and Regulation
Certain groups are calling to hit pause, at least until better rules are in place. International bodies and coalitions of environmental groups have demanded a halt on new datacentre development, citing damaging environmental impacts. Some national regulators have imposed conditions, requiring that a large majority of a datacentre’s power must eventually come from new renewable projects.
Some advocates have called to incentivize the industry to do good. A few countries have started to include AI in climate legislation, obliging governments to promote digitalisation that aids decarbonisation. There have also been suggestions to tax AI to generate resources needed for climate action.
Some campaigners are pushing for upcoming regulations to classify certain high-emission applications of AI as concerning. They also want investors to consider downstream carbon effects when evaluating companies.
In response to concerns, some AI companies have stated they give considerable thought to the best use of computing power, support sustainability goals, and believe AI will be instrumental in tackling climate change. Other tech firms argue the energy transition is complex and requires a pragmatic strategy, with technology playing an important role in helping industries decarbonize.
One researcher concluded that, rather than panic, people should pressure companies to make tools that are frugal by design.
“I choose to be optimistic, but I still believe that AI can be a force for good in terms of fighting the climate crisis – designing the next generation of batteries, tracking deforestation, forecasting hurricanes,” she said. “Countless good things for which we can be using it – and instead we’re creating digital spaces filled with low-value content while datacentres are getting powered by fossil fuel plants.”
